The depression likely to form this month over the Andaman Sea will support monsoon advancement and help the June to September rain-bearing system known as the lifeblood of India’s economy arrive around the normal time in Kerala around June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.
Ananda Kumar Das, who is in charge of IMD’s cyclones monitoring, cited satellite imagery and said the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which appears as a band of clouds encircling the globe near the equator and is responsible for the wet and dry seasons in the tropics, is very active. He added this indicates a monsoon surge will be established soon. “The depression will help establish the cross-equatorial flow. The formation of the depression will eventually also help monsoon arrive around the normal time over Kerala around June 1 with an error margin of +/-5 days,” said Das.
The monsoon, which normally arrives in Kerala around June 1 and covers the rest of India by mid-July, brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. A normal monsoon is critical. Half of Indians depend on farm-derived income. Nearly 40% of India’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation. Half of India’s farm output comes from summer crops dependent on the monsoon.
The rains have to be robust and evenly spread across states for good farm output as global food prices have hit record highs due to a shortage amid the Ukraine conflict. A subpar monsoon cuts farm yields, output, and farm incomes. It increases India’s dependence on food imports. A robust monsoon will help put a lid on food inflation by increasing the domestic output. Food inflation reached 7.7% in March 2022, the highest since November 2020. The prices of vegetables (10.6%) and oil and fats (20.7%) grew in double digits. The wheat prices have jumped significantly because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
